“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — Six Takeaways
In classic Washington style, Congress pushed the limits of drama and delay, passing a sweeping reconciliation bill just hours before President Donald Trump’s self-imposed July 4, 2025 deadline.
Artificial Intelligence: The Antidote to Fed Policy?
While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different.
How’s It Going? Depends on Who You Ask in a Post-Pandemic Economy
The post-pandemic economy is treating people very differently, creating a headache for central bankers. The extreme differences can often get traced back to living situations, as renters have a very …
U.S. Government Debt Was Downgraded. Will it Matter?
One of the three main rating agencies (Fitch) has downgraded U.S. government debt to its second highest rating, AA+.
The Taylor Swift Era, Consumer Spending & Inflation Clarity
As the dog days of summer roll on, and many of us are taking advantage of warm weather and time off to enjoy experiences, American consumer spending patterns are coming into focus.
Are Rates Too High? Too Low? Just Right? Depends on Who You Ask
Much has been made of the volatility in the bond markets this year. Over the past few months, Treasury yields have frequently moved 0.20% in a day—something that hasn’t happened in decades.
6 Things to Know About Stocks and Recessions
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In the section summarizing staff projections, to the surprise of some, the staff explicitly forecasted a recession.
Dissecting Recent Bank Failures
Stock and bond market activity was materially shaken last week as Silicon Valley Bank, the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, fell into FDIC receivership.
Supply Chain Stability Comes at a Cost
As the long-term effects of the pandemic continue to unfold, one trend that has been adopted by multinational companies is to repatriate their supply chains in an effort to avoid future disruptions.
Debt Ceiling Standoff Back in Focus
The debt limit is back in focus as the ceiling was breached again on January 19. The amount is set by Congress and has been increased 78 times since 1960.